Ethereum ETH Mining Simulator
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Resources • & • & • • • • & • • • • • & • • •. Premise #1 I have noticed that there is some confusion regarding the so called 'difficulty bomb' and how exactly it will affect block discovery time. I've read posts claiming it will halt the network in 6 or 12 months. The most reputable source of information I have found is this post by: (but even that seems slightly off to me, more on that later) Premise #2 How does the difficulty adjustment currently work? Why MonaCoin MONA Mining Is Dead. The current full specifications can, of course, be found in the.
More specifically, in section 4.4.4 of the paper. A friendlier description can be found in: block_diff = parent_diff + parent_diff // 2048 * max(1 - (block_timestamp - parent_timestamp) // 10, -99) + int(2**((block.number // 100000) - 2)) where // is the integer division operator, eg. 6 // 2 = 3, 7 // 2 = 3, 8 // 2 = 4 In vaguely human speech 😂: • To calculate the difficulty for a new block. Make it equal to the difficulty of the parent block, then: • if our new block has been found less than 10s after the parent block, add 1/2048th of the parent block difficulty • if our new block has been found between 20s and 29s after the parent block, subtract 1/2048th of the parent block difficulty • if our new block has been found between 30s and 39s after the parent block, subtract 2/2048th of the parent block difficulty •.
• if our new block has been found between 990s and 999s after the parent block, subtract 98/2048th of the parent block difficulty • if our new block has been found after 1000s after the parent block, subtract 99/2048th of the parent block difficulty •. On top of that, add a difficulty increment of 2 [sequence number of our new block]/100000-2 (that division rounds down to the integer) Basically, it doubles every 100k blocks. For example: • at block #1200000: 2 10 = 1024 • at block #1300000: 2 11 = 2048 •. • at block #1700000: 2 15 = 32768 • at block #1800000 (i.e. Soon from now): 2 16 = 65536 In slightly more human speech: There are two 'forces' acting on the difficulty: • One is the 'adjustment': it changes the difficulty up or down so that the average block time stays between 10 and 20 seconds (this normally causes an average between 14 and 15 seconds: it's not exactly 15 seconds because block time has a statistical bias towards 0). Note, though, that the maximum 'pull down' the adjustment can apply is proportional to the current difficulty.
In particular, it's -99/2048 * difficulty (this happens when a block is discovered 1000+ seconds from its parent). • The other is the 'difficulty bomb': it doubles every 100k block and is not based on the current difficulty. What is going to happen There are two phases: • The pressure from the difficulty bomb is smaller than 99/2048th of the 'natural difficulty' (i.e. How difficult blocks would be if there were no bomb: it vaguely represents how powerful the mining network is). In this phase the difficulty bomb is simply not felt much at all.
• The pressure from the difficulty bomb is greater than 99/2048th of the 'natural difficulty': every time the difficulty bomb increases, block difficulty will increase until the two forces are in equilibrium (and at that point blocktime will get longer and longer each 100k, increasing forever). Why did I claim that 's estimates were slightly off in that post? He used an example of 2 45 natural difficulty.
That means that at 2 45 difficulty miners find blocks with an average between 14 and 15 seconds. Let's calculate the maximum adjustment for it: 2 45 * 99 / 2048 = 2 45 * 99 / 2 11 = 99 * 2 34 He says: At block 3.5m (1 year from now), we would have an equilibrium block time of 25s for 100k blocks (~1 month) At block 3500000 the difficulty bomb would be 2 33. That's 99*2 times smaller than the maximum adjustment, so equilibrium should still be around 15s, not so far as 25s. So I decided to check it for myself. Blocktime simulator Between yesterday and today I wrote an Ethereum blocktime simulator: I took into consideration mining power increase over time (I used a simple linear function).
My result is that difficulty will increase a bit more mildly than predicted by Vitalik, but his assessment that it will get annoying by 2017 seems correct. This is what I get by using today's network mining power, without mining power increase over time: TL;DR: we reach 30s block time in 2017-07; 60s in 2017-12; 120s in 2018-09 And this is factoring in an increase of mining power of 9.18 Tera per month: TL;DR: we reach 30s block time in 2017-08; 60s in 2018-01; 120s in 2018-12 PS: I hate Python and I am rather new at it, so I encourage everyone to double check my script cause it might be full of bugs 😂 • • • • •.